FlBusinessPressReleases.com | By Brian French | Published September 12, 2026
Independent market coverage. This report does not represent or speak for any company, developer, or brokerage named.
Quick Answer
Florida’s population boom has normalized, and its commercial real estate market is adjusting in real time. Net migration into the state fell from 598,737 people in 2022 to 201,191 in 2025 — and domestic migration alone dropped from 310,892 to 22,517 — yet office fundamentals in Miami, West Palm Beach, and Orlando are the strongest they have been since before the pandemic. The explanation is that demand has shifted rather than disappeared: growth has moved from the most expensive coastal counties to mid-sized inland ones, tenants have moved from commodity space to trophy and Class A product, and developers have moved from speculative ground-up construction to adaptive reuse. Industrial vacancy is stabilizing after a supply glut, the 2025 repeal of Florida’s commercial rent tax has lowered occupancy costs, and a PropTech sector concentrated in Miami is drawing a meaningful share of the region’s venture capital.
Key Numbers at a Glance
| Metric | Figure | Source / Period |
|---|---|---|
| Florida net migration (domestic + international) | 201,191 | Census via UF Shimberg Center, 2025 |
| Florida net migration at peak | 598,737 | Census via UF Shimberg Center, 2022 |
| Florida net domestic migration | 22,517 | Census Bureau, 2025 |
| Florida net international migration | 178,674 (largest of any state) | Census Bureau, 2025 |
| Florida population growth rate | ~0.9% | Census components of change, 2025 |
| Miami-Dade office vacancy | 10.8% – 14.9% | Colliers / CBRE, Q2 2026 |
| West Palm Beach trophy office vacancy | 6.1% | Avison Young, 1H 2026 |
| Orlando office vacancy | 13.4% | Newmark, Q2 2026 |
| Orlando office asking rent | $27.45/SF (record) | Newmark, Q2 2026 |
| Orlando industrial vacancy | 9.4% – 10.2% | Newmark / CBRE, Q2 2026 |
| Tampa Bay industrial vacancy | 7.4% | Cushman & Wakefield, Q2 2026 |
| Miami-Dade industrial absorption, 2026 YTD | 1.3 million SF | CBRE, Q2 2026 |
The Migration Reset
The single most important input to Florida commercial real estate — new residents — has changed shape. According to the University of Florida’s Shimberg Center for Housing Studies, the state added 201,191 residents through migration in 2025, roughly 551 people per day, down from a 2022 peak of 598,737, or about 1,640 per day. Natural change (births minus deaths) is essentially flat, so migration is the whole growth story, and most of what remains is international: Florida recorded the largest net international migration of any state in 2025 at 178,674, while net domestic migration fell to 22,517. Florida, long a top-three destination for state-to-state movers, ranked eighth in 2025, behind Alabama.
Demographers writing in Fortune and The Conversation put the state’s 2025 growth rate near 0.9% and noted that the property-tax amendment headed to the November 2026 ballot — expanding the homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 — was designed around a growth rate that no longer exists. Florida Realtors’ own analysis, drawing on driver’s license exchange data, calls the trend “cooling, not reversing” and notes that in-migration still exceeds pre-pandemic levels, but that younger families are increasingly priced out.
The geography matters more than the statewide total. The Shimberg Center reports that Miami-Dade and other high-cost counties are now losing residents to domestic out-migration, while Polk, Pasco, and Marion counties — where single-family construction has kept pace with demand — remain among the strongest destinations. Axios cites hurricanes, return-to-office mandates, and home-insurance premiums as the factors deterring domestic movers. For commercial real estate, this means demand for retail, medical office, and light industrial is migrating inland along I-4 and up the Gulf Coast, while South Florida’s demand is increasingly high-income, international, and concentrated in a few submarkets.
Office: A Two-Tier Market Under Hybrid Demand
Florida’s office market is not suffering the national malaise, but it has bifurcated sharply.
South Florida. Miami-Dade posted 344,000 square feet of positive net absorption in Q2 2026 per CBRE, with vacancy at 14.9% and average asking rents of $68.60; Colliers, using a different inventory set, reports 10.8% vacancy and record Class A rents of $73.37. West Palm Beach leads the nation in office utilization at 92% and trophy vacancy of 6.1%, against 14.8% for Class A generally. The spread between trophy and everything else is the clearest measure of hybrid-era demand: tenants are consolidating into fewer, better buildings and paying up to do it.
Orlando. After four quarters of negative absorption in 2025, Orlando’s office market has turned. JLL’s Q2 report shows year-to-date absorption of 352,000 square feet, versus 17,000 for all of 2025, with vacancy down nearly a full point year over year. Newmark puts vacancy at 13.4% with asking rents at an all-time high of $27.45 and a construction pipeline of just 40,000 square feet — 0.1% of inventory, the lowest since 2020. Orlando has not delivered a major Class A tower since 2023 in Lake Nona, a building that sat largely empty for two years before Siemens Energy took it. JLL’s Nick Poole told GrowthSpotter the pendulum has swung back toward full-time office, but that speculative construction is unlikely before 2027 or 2028. The $500 million Westcourt sports-and-entertainment district downtown is the most anticipated mixed-use project in the pipeline.
Tampa Bay. Avison Young describes a market “returning to baseline”: leasing has moderated after several quarters of large commitments, absorption is slightly positive, and rents are strengthening most in the St. Petersburg CBD. Office sales reached $131.7 million in Q2, led by the $94 million sale of 400 N. Ashley Drive.
The late-2025 repeal of Florida’s commercial rent tax — a sales tax on commercial leases that no other state levied — removed a structural cost that had made Florida occupancy look more expensive than peer markets, and brokerages cite it as a tailwind for 2026 leasing decisions.
Industrial: The Supply Glut Is Being Absorbed
Industrial is the property type where migration normalization has been most visible, because developers built for the 2022 population curve.
Orlando delivered more than 20 million square feet over four years, and vacancy peaked at 9.2% in mid-2025 as roughly 12 million square feet of speculative product hit softening demand. The market has since turned: Newmark reports 467,043 square feet of positive absorption in Q2 2026, vacancy down to 9.4%, and a construction pipeline of 931,030 square feet — down 71.5% year over year and the lowest since 2015. CBRE, using a different building set, puts vacancy at 10.2%. Big-box demand west of Orlando International Airport, near the convergence of SR 528, the Turnpike, and Orange Blossom Trail, is driving the recovery; sub-50,000-square-foot space in pre-1980 buildings continues to lose tenants. CBRE has named Orlando a top-10 U.S. market for industrial rent growth in 2026.
Miami-Dade has posted 1.3 million square feet of positive industrial absorption so far in 2026 after a flat 2025, nearly all of it in high-quality product, with only 2.9 million square feet in the pipeline. Tampa Bay industrial vacancy held at 7.4% in Q2, with Lakeland accounting for the majority of leasing at nearly 603,000 square feet. Palm Beach County ended 2025 at 7.9% vacancy after absorbing a wave of new supply.
The pattern across all four markets is identical: tenants are upgrading into new space, older product is being vacated, and the development pipeline has collapsed to pre-2020 levels. That sets up vacancy compression through 2027 and returns pricing power to landlords of modern buildings.
Adaptive Reuse: Building Without Breaking Ground
With ground-up office construction near zero outside South Florida and speculative industrial paused, capital is flowing into conversions.
Tampa. Armature Works, a former trolley barn converted to a market hall and event venue, remains the regional template. Rithm at Uptown, the redevelopment of the former University Mall beside USF, is being built out as a mixed-use district with several thousand residential units plus retail and office space.
Orlando. Orlando Orthopaedic Center converted 17,000 square feet of the Oviedo Mall into medical office — an example of the mall-to-medical pattern that is repeating statewide as retail centers lose anchors and healthcare systems need outpatient space near residential growth. Interstruct’s restoration of the historic Black Bottom House of Prayer in Parramore and the FORDify the Arts Courtyard show the smaller-scale civic version.
Miami. Morabito Properties’ Wyncatcher II converted a Wynwood warehouse into creative office, retail, and event space, preserving the industrial envelope while adding double-height glazing and flexible floor plates. Downtown Miami and Orlando both offer revitalization incentives that the Florida Apartment Association’s Build Florida 2030 initiative credits with unlocking residential conversions.
Office-to-residential conversion is growing in walkable downtowns, with typical timelines of 12 to 30 months from feasibility to close-out, according to brokerage guidance summarized by Orlando-area residential firms. The constraint is not demand but building geometry: deep floor plates and central cores in 1980s towers are expensive to convert, which is why the successful projects skew toward warehouses, malls, and pre-war structures.
On sustainability, the shift to LEED v5 — the latest version of the rating system, now in use — raises the bar on embodied carbon, which structurally favors reuse over demolition. Developers pursuing green certification on Florida projects increasingly find that keeping the existing structure is the fastest path to points.
PropTech: Where the Software Meets the Square Footage
Florida’s property-technology sector is concentrated in Miami and rides the same venture-capital wave as fintech. Secondary trackers report that fintech, proptech, and healthtech together accounted for roughly 65% of Miami’s venture dollars in 2025, out of $4.13 billion raised across South Florida. That capital is funding tools for exactly the problems this report describes: hybrid-occupancy analytics for landlords deciding how much space tenants actually use, conversion-feasibility modeling for adaptive reuse, insurance-risk platforms for a state where premiums are now a top deterrent to migration, and leasing marketplaces for the fragmented sub-50,000-square-foot industrial segment.
The operating signal to watch is utilization data. West Palm Beach’s 92% utilization figure comes from badge and sensor data that did not exist at scale five years ago; as that data becomes standard, it will reprice hybrid-era office faster than quarterly vacancy reports can.
Metro Scorecard: Migration Signal vs. Market Response
| Metro | Domestic Migration Signal | Office Vacancy | Industrial Vacancy | Development Posture |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | Losing domestic, gaining international | 10.8% – 14.9% | Absorbing 1.3M SF YTD | 1.2M+ SF office under construction |
| West Palm Beach | High-income inflow | 6.1% trophy / 14.8% Class A | 7.9% (county) | 1.9M SF office pipeline |
| Orlando | Slowing; inland counties gaining | 13.4% | 9.4% – 10.2% | Office pipeline near zero; industrial down 71% |
| Tampa Bay | Pasco, Polk gaining | Stabilizing | 7.4% | Adaptive reuse led |
Vacancy ranges reflect differing brokerage inventory definitions; both figures are shown where they diverge materially.
Methodology
This report assembles public data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s components-of-change estimates as analyzed by the University of Florida’s Shimberg Center for Housing Studies, Florida Realtors, and academic demographers; brokerage market reports from CBRE, Colliers, Cushman & Wakefield, Newmark, JLL, Avison Young, and Marcus & Millichap; and reporting by Florida Trend, WLRN, WFSU, Axios, Fortune, GrowthSpotter, and the Orlando Economic Partnership. Where brokerages report different figures for the same market, both are shown with the source noted. Venture-capital figures are from secondary trackers and labeled as such. No company named was consulted, and none has a client relationship with the author.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Florida’s population still growing in 2026?
Yes, but slowly. Growth was roughly 0.9% in 2025, driven almost entirely by international migration; net domestic migration fell to about 22,500, down from more than 310,000 in 2022.
Which Florida counties are gaining the most residents?
Polk, Pasco, and Marion counties led domestic in-migration in 2025, according to the UF Shimberg Center, while high-cost counties including Miami-Dade lost residents to other states.
How is hybrid work affecting Florida office space?
Tenants are consolidating into trophy and Class A buildings and paying record rents for them, while older product loses occupancy. West Palm Beach trophy vacancy is 6.1% against 14.8% for Class A overall.
Is Florida industrial real estate overbuilt?
It was in 2024 and 2025, particularly in Orlando, but absorption turned positive in mid-2025 and construction pipelines have fallen 70% or more year over year, setting up vacancy compression through 2027.
What is adaptive reuse and where is it happening in Florida?
Adaptive reuse repurposes existing buildings for new uses: Tampa’s Armature Works and Rithm at Uptown, Orlando’s Oviedo Mall medical conversion, and Miami’s Wyncatcher II in Wynwood are current examples. It is favored by both financing conditions and LEED v5’s emphasis on embodied carbon.
Did Florida repeal its commercial rent tax?
Yes. The sales tax on commercial leases was repealed in late 2025, removing an occupancy cost that no other state imposed and improving Florida’s competitiveness for corporate relocations.
Brian’s Take
Every real estate cycle has a moment when the headline number and the fundamentals point in opposite directions. Florida is in that moment now. Domestic migration is down more than 90% from peak, and office rents in Miami, West Palm Beach, and Orlando are at all-time highs. Both are true, and the second does not contradict the first.
The reason is that Florida’s commercial market never really ran on headcount. It ran on income, and the people still arriving — international movers to Miami-Dade, wealth to Palm Beach, retirees and families to Pasco and Polk — are either high-earning or arriving where new housing has kept costs manageable. A state that adds 200,000 people a year is still one of the fastest-growing in the country. It is simply no longer growing everywhere at once.
For operators, three implications. First, the trophy-versus-commodity spread is the trade: own or lease the best building in the submarket, because the middle of the market is where hybrid demand is disappearing. Second, inland is where the population is going, and medical office, neighborhood retail, and small-bay industrial in Polk, Pasco, and Marion will outperform their coastal equivalents on a risk-adjusted basis for the next several years. Third, the development pipeline collapse is the setup for the next cycle. With office construction near zero outside South Florida and industrial starts at 2015 levels, whoever controls entitled land and convertible buildings in 2027 will set pricing in 2029.
The property-tax amendment is the wild card. It was designed for a growth rate that has already gone, and if it passes, local governments will look for revenue elsewhere. Commercial property owners should assume they are on that list.
Sources and Further Reading
- University of Florida News, “Florida migration slowed sharply in 2025, with mid-sized counties continuing to grow,” July 13, 2026 — https://news.ufl.edu/2026/07/florida-migration/
- Florida Trend / The Center Square, “Florida’s pandemic population boom cools,” February 6, 2026 — https://www.floridatrend.com/articles/2026/02/06/floridas-pandemic-population-boom-cools/
- Fortune, “Florida’s big tax cut plan assumes a level of migration that has already collapsed 90%,” July 15, 2026 — https://fortune.com/2026/07/15/florida-tax-cut-migration-collapse/
- The Conversation, “Florida’s proposed property tax cuts rely on a population boom that has slowed dramatically,” July 8, 2026 — https://theconversation.com/floridas-proposed-property-tax-cuts-rely-on-a-population-boom-that-has-slowed-dramatically-285448
- Florida Realtors, “Florida’s Migration Is Cooling, Not Reversing,” May 11, 2026 — https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2026/05/floridas-migration-cooling-not-reversing
- U.S. Census Bureau, “International Migration Remained Flat in the 10% of Counties That Did Not Experience a Decline,” March 2026 — https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2026/03/net-international-migration.html
- WLRN, “Florida relied on immigration for almost all of its population growth last year,” February 10, 2026 — https://www.wlrn.org/business/2026-02-10/florida-population-growth-immigration
- WFSU, “Florida’s growth is fueling a new migration pattern in the state,” July 27, 2026 — https://news.wfsu.org/state-news/2026-07-27/floridas-growth-is-fueling-a-new-migration-pattern-in-the-state
- Axios Tampa Bay, “Florida migration boom fades as rising costs push residents out,” April 24, 2026 — https://www.axios.com/local/tampa-bay/2026/04/24/florida-affordability-housing-insurance-costs-population-growth-slowdown
- CBRE, “Miami Office Figures Report – Q2 2026” — https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/miami-office-figures-report-q2-2026
- CBRE, “Miami Industrial Figures – Q2 2026” — https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/miami-industrial-figures-q2-2026
- Colliers, “Miami-Dade County Office Market Report, 2026 Q2” — https://www.colliers.com/en/research/miami/2q26-miami-dade-county-office
- Avison Young, “West Palm Beach Office Market Report,” 1H 2026 — https://www.avisonyoung.us/web/west-palm-beach/office-market-report
- Avison Young, “Tampa Office Market Report,” Q2 2026 — https://www.avisonyoung.us/web/tampa/office-market-report
- Newmark, “Orlando Real Estate Market Report,” Q2 2026 — https://www.nmrk.com/insights/market-report/orlando-real-estate-market-report
- CBRE, “Orlando Industrial Figures – Q2 2026” — https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/orlando-industrial-figures-q2-2026
- GrowthSpotter, “Orlando’s office market is recovering six years after COVID,” August 31, 2026 — https://www.growthspotter.com/2026/08/31/orlandos-office-market-is-recovering-six-years-after-covid/
- Marcus & Millichap, “Orlando 2Q26 Industrial Market Report,” May 2026 — https://www.marcusmillichap.com/research/market-report/orlando/orlando-2q26-industrial-market-report
- Cushman & Wakefield, “Tampa Bay MarketBeats,” Q2 2026 — https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/us-marketbeats/tampa-bay-marketbeats
- Cushman & Wakefield, “Palm Beach MarketBeats,” 2026 — https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/united-states/insights/us-marketbeats/palm-beach-marketbeats
- Florida Apartment Association / Build Florida 2030, “Adaptive Reuse” — https://www.buildflorida2030.com/adaptivereuse
- The DeMarco Real Estate Group, “Reimagining South Florida: Adaptive reuse projects shaping the future,” May 2025 — https://www.demarcogroup.com/reimagining-south-florida-adaptive-reuse-projects-shaping-the-future/
- Interstruct Inc., adaptive reuse portfolio (Oviedo Mall, Parramore) — https://interstructinc.com/portfolio_services/adaptive-reuse/
- Value Add VC, “South Florida Money Map 2026” (secondary source) — https://valueaddvc.com/south-florida-money-map
About the Author
About Brian French
Led by a commitment to tech-intelligent curation, Brian French tracks and analyzes and produces Florida Business Press Releases in reportig on the Florida economy. Brian brings an extensive financial background to his analysis, having graduated from the University of South Florida in Finance and serving as a Vice President and Portfolio Manager for Merrill Lynch Private Investors and the Trust Department in St. Petersburg, FL, as well as a Vice President and Trust Investment Officer for SunTrust Bank in Sarasota, FL. His writing blends macroeconomic trends, fiduciary capital markets, corporate strategy, and modern digital insights for a sophisticated look at Florida's business market.
